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Winter Courses in Climate Data Analysis

Bad Gandersheim, Heckenbeck, Germany:



Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis

9 to 13 January 2017



Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis

16 to 20 January 2017

The courses are tailored to the needs of PhD students, postdocs and professional researchers in climatology, ecology, environmental sciences, geosciences, meteorology and hydrology. You get the required statistical tools and extensive hands-on training to become able to optimally analyse your data and answer the associated questions about the climate. You acquire the theoretical basis for understanding the tools and interpreting the results. You learn to determine the various sources of uncertainty in data, climate models and statistical estimation. You become aware of the three major pitfalls in climate data analysis: ignored autocorrelation, violated Gaussian assumption and ignored multiplicity of hypothesis tests.

Assumed level in both courses. Knowledge in calculus and basic statistics (e.g., random variable, expectation, variance).

How do the courses differ? The Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis is rather broad, it covers the major estimation problems in applied climatology. The Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis focuses on the detection and statistical analysis of extreme events. Both courses are based on the same textbook (Mudelsee 2014). For an intensive two-week training, you may consider taking both courses (at a reduced rate).

Climate case studies serve to illustrate the usefulness of the tools: how to make the most of your data by means of statistics—and how to publish it in a research paper. Examples include:

  • Monsoon proxy records and solar forcing in the Holocene (Fleitmann et al. 2003 Science 300:1737)
  • Paleohurricane risk from proxy series during the past millennium (Besonen et al. 2008 Geophysical Research Letters 35:L14705)
  • River floods during the past centuries (Mudelsee et al. 2003 Nature 425:166)
  • Nature of long memory in river runoff series (Mudelsee 2007 Water Resources Research 43:W01202)

The course instructor, Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, trained in physics, geology and statistics, has a long-standing expertise in teaching statistical methods to non-specialists.

The courses consists of lectures and extensive hands-on training in computer tutorials. Data, software, the lecture as PDF, the statistical tools and a copy of the textbook (Mudelsee, 2014, Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp) are included in the fee.

Participants are strongly encouraged to bring their own data for discussion and analysis during the course. For each course, the number of participants is limited to eight to allow in-depth individual consultation with the course holder and textbook author, Manfred Mudelsee.

An ice-breaker meal, a course dinner, snacks, coffee and tea as well as a shuttle service to or from the railway station are also covered by the registration fee.

Participants of past courses have praised the intellectual, co-operative atmosphere in the courses, the family-like setting and the nice rural landscape around here. Heckenbeck is a little village of high ecological awareness, which belongs to the medieval town of Bad Gandersheim.

The new lecture house, without barriers, has opened in summer 2015.

Past participants: country list

Australia, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Nepal, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, UK, USA

Past participants: references

The course is very helpful and gives great insight into statistical methods important in paleoclimate research. I've already used some of the software to analyse my data and it has proven to be extremely useful.
Henrieka Detlef
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Cardiff University, UK

Manfred's course armed us with the theory and tools behind some of the most fundamental and useful climate data analysis techniques. … It is also a respite from the fast-paced lifestyle of wherever one is coming from; Heckenbeck is picturesque throughout the seasons, making for a relaxing environment to learn the tools of the trade.
Christopher S. Kelly
Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Science
Brown University, USA

As a paleoclimate researcher, I know that it is always necessary to connect my own sets of data with time. All of these datasets will only have meaningful interpretations when linked to records associated with time-dependent series and processes. I have this thinking when I started looking for a course that can help me with my data analysis. … The climate time series course analysis offered by Manfred Mudelsee is just the perfect course to take for this purpose. … I also like it that the last sessions were allotted for presenting our own data in class, get some feedbacks, and analysing them on the spot with our own software choice.
Deborah Tangunan
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

I therefore think that attending such a course is of high interest to paleoclimate researchers, especially those who are looking for climate mechanisms, feedbacks and lead and lags of different climatic components. However, I would advise to have beforehand all the statistical and mathematical concepts readily 'charged' and fresh in your brain. Therefore one doesn't loose too much time trying to remember what's variance, how is the Pearson's coefficient calculated, what t-Student stands for or even what characterizes a Gaussian curve. Finally, it was a privilege to work and receive advice from Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, to focus on my and participate on other colleagues problem solving and always in a very comfortable, familiar and cozy environment.
Catarina Dinis Cavaleiro
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences
University of Bremen, Germany

Registration

  • Email to course@climate-risk-analysis.com
  • Indicate 'Advanced Climate Time Series Analysis' or 'Special Climate Extremes Analysis' course
  • Deadline for registration: 30 December 2016
  • Ten participants per course maximum: first come, first serve
  • Give your name, research field, affiliation, laptop operating system, address, country, mobile phone, dietary preferences and other issues; preferably: your booked accomodation; optional: second email address, fax
  • Please attach also the abstract of a recent paper or thesis you are working on, since this allows us to better prepare for your needs
  • Give name of paying institution together with its address and, if applicable, VAT ID number (note that non-German institutions in the EU may qualify for the reverse-charge mechanism, please check with your paying institution)
  • Your first email address appears on messages sent to all participants, other details confidential
  • Contact us if in need of more information (visa, invitation letter, VAT, etc.)
  • After receiving your registration email, an official payment request is sent to you electronically, which you kindly let your institution pay; this payment completes the registration

Included in registration fee

  • Textbook (Mudelsee 2014 Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp.; 1 softcopy)
  • Lecture (PDF; USB stick)
  • Data and software (Windows executables and selected Fortran source codes; USB stick)
  • Caliza™ 3.0 software, full version (net single price, 850 EUR)
  • One month post-course software support
  • Ice-breaker (Sunday evening), course dinner (Thursday evening)
  • Snacks, coffee and tea (Monday to Friday)
  • Shuttle service (to/from railway station Kreiensen)

Registration fee (net price, excluding 19% VAT)

  • Registration fee (single course): 1150 EUR
  • Registration fee (both courses): 1650 EUR
  • Deadline for course cancellation at a rate of 50% repayment is 6 January 2017 (receipt of email); later cancellation means 0% repayment

Organizer

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany (CRA)
  • Contact person: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, phone +49 5563 9998140

Bank account

  • Account holder: Dr. Manfred Mudelsee
  • Bank name: Commerzbank Baden-Baden
  • Bank address: Lichtentaler Strasse 27, 76530 Baden-Baden, Germany
  • Sort code: 662 400 02
  • Account number: 350 102 000
  • IBAN: DE83 6624 0002 0350 1020 00
  • BIC: COBADEFFXXX

Course, technicalities and skills

  • Language: English
  • Audience: PhD students, postdocs and professional researchers in climatology, ecology, environmental sciences, geosciences, meteorology or hydrology
  • Assumed level: knowledge in calculus and basic statistics
  • Laptop: essential for doing the tutorial, bring your own
  • Laptop operating system: Windows preferable but not mandatory, Linux also works
  • Mac users: prior to the start of the course, install a Windows emulator (see, e.g.,Wine, https://www.winehq.org; Homebrew, http://brew.sh; or Xcode, https://developer.apple.com); if uncertain, do consult someone from the computing department of your institution
  • Internet connection: via LAN cables, which are provided by CRA (please check your laptop's connections)
  • Computing environment: the course accomodates virtually all (Matlab, Python, R, S-Plus, etc.)
  • Data: you are very welcome to bring your own data for analysis! During the course, you have the chance of giving a mini presentation of your data and work!
  • Link: courses, general

Certificate

  • Detailed list of taught topics
  • ECTS or other credit points: the work load estimate is 30 hours during the course week plus 30 hours for preparation on basis of the lecture PDF (which is sent at least one week before the start of a course); students may use the certificate (over 60 hours work load) to claim credit points from their educational institution
  • Provided at the last day of a course

Time schedule (Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis)

       
  Arrival Sun 8 January 2017 afternoon
  Ice-breaker at CRA Sun 19.00
  Preliminary (Badge, Book, Invoice, LAN Cable, USB Stick) Mon 9 January 2017 9.30
    Lecture Tutorial
1. Introduction

Village Tour

Mon 10–11 Mon 11–12

Mon 12-13

2. Persistence Models Mon 15–16 Mon 16–17
3. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Tue 10–13  
4. Regression I Tue 15–16 Tue 16–18
5. Spectral Analysis Wed 10–11 Wed 11–13
6. Extreme Value Time Series Wed 15–16 Wed 16–18
7. Correlation Thur 10–11 Thur 11–13
8. Regression II Thur 15–16 Thur 16–17
  Course Dinner at CRA Thur 19.30
9.    Open Session (Re-Cap, Climate Model Uncertainties, More Applications, In-Depth Analyses, etc.)

Certificate

Fri 9–13
    Farewell (Snacks or Lunch Package) Fri 13–14

Time schedule (Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis)

       
  Arrival Sun 15 January 2017 afternoon
  Ice-breaker at CRA Sun 19.00
  Preliminary (Badge, Book, Invoice, LAN Cable, USB Stick) Mon 16 January 2017 9.30
    Lecture Tutorial
1. Introduction

Village Tour

Mon 10–11 Mon 11–12

Mon 12–13

2. Persistence Models Mon 15–16 Mon 16–17
3. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Tue 10–13  
4. Regression I Tue 15–16 Tue 16–18
5. Extreme Value Time Series: Data Types and Detection Wed 10–11 Wed 11–13
6. Extreme Value Time Series: Stationary and Nonstationary Models, Hypothesis Tests Wed 15–16 Wed 16–18
7. Extreme Value Time Series: Case Study Elbe Floods Thur 10–11
8. Extreme Value Time Series: Open Session (Re-Cap, More Case Studies, In-Depth Analyses, etc.) Thur 11–13, 15–17
  Course Dinner at CRA Thur 19.30
9.    Extreme Value Time Series: Open Session (Re-Cap, More Case Studies, In-Depth Analyses, etc.)

Certificate

Fri 9–13
    Farewell (snacks or lunch package) Fri 13–14

Venue

  • Climate Risk Analysis, Course/Office Building, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany
  • Contact phone: +49 5563 999246 and +49 5563 9998140
  • New, modern bungalow
  • Barrier-free
  • Picturesque medieval town Bad Gandersheim; nice rural landscape with high ecological awareness in and around Heckenbeck; intellectually stimulating, co-operative atmosphere and family-like setting at CRA
  • External Link: Heckenbeck on TV [in German]
  • Local organic food store in walking distance: Grüne Tomaten

Accomodation

A wide range of room types (see below) is available but their number is limited. It is therefore advisable to book early. Please contact CRA if you need additional information or help with the booking.
  • Weltbühne Heckenbeck: walking distance, six places (single/double) maximum, no breakfast but has kitchen, approximately 27 EUR per night and person, basic quality (*)
  • Rike's Guesthouse Heckenbeck: walking distance, one place (single/double) maximum, reserved for CRA until mid December 2016 (please mention CRA at booking), no breakfast but has kitchen, approximately 32 EUR per night and person, good quality (**), contact: Rike and Jürgen Rech, email
  • CRA's Guest Studio: walking distance, one place (single) maximum, breakfast included, sauna, 60 EUR per night and person, high quality (***)
  • Klosterhof Brunshausen: about 15 min by taxi, five places (single/double) maximum, reserved for CRA until mid December 2016 (please mention CRA at booking), breakfast included, charming historical place on the border of Bad Gandersheim, approximately 35 EUR per night and person, good quality (**)
  • Gerichtsschänke Bad Gandersheim: about 10 min by taxi, single, double or triple rooms, about seven rooms reserved for CRA until mid December 2016 (please mention CRA at booking), breakfast included, in the centre of Bad Gandersheim, approximately 40 EUR per night and person, good quality (**)

Travel

  • Hannover airport: HAJ, take S-Bahn to Hannover central railway station
  • Hannover central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~45 min)
  • Göttingen central railway station: take local train to Kreiensen (~20 min)
  • External Link: Deutsche Bahn railway
  • From Kreiensen to CRA: If you arrive not too late: call CRA at +49 5563999246 or +49 5563 9998140 to get picked up! If you arrive late: Taxi Kreiensen, better to call in advance, phone +49 5563 7777 (~10 EUR)
  • Taxi Bad Gandersheim: City Car (website not yet available, last access: 20 September 2016), phone +49 5382 907908

Milestones

     
#1 Deadline for registration 30 Dec 2016 Fri
#2 Confirmation email: registration, payment, details, password for lecture-PDF, welcome 2 Jan 2017 Mon
#3 Lecture (PDF, password-protected) put online 2 Jan 2017 Mon
#4 Deadline for cancellation (50% repayment) 6 Jan 2017 Fri
#5 Arrival, accomodation, ice breaker (Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis) 8 Jan 2017 Sun
#6  Start of course (Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis) 9 Jan 2017 Mon
#7 End of course (Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis) 13 Jan 2017 Fri
#8 Arrival, accomodation, ice breaker (Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis) 15 Jan 2017 Sun
#9  Start of course (Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis) 16 Jan 2017 Mon
#10 End of course (Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis) 20 Jan 2017 Fri
#11 End of 1-month post-course software support (Advanced Course in Climate Time Series Analysis) 13 Feb 2017 Mon
#12      End of 1-month post-course software support (Special Course in Climate Extremes Analysis) 20 Feb 2017 Mon

A very warm welcome to Bad Gandersheim and Heckenbeck!