Nature Publishing Group
Example: flood risk analysis.
Occurrence rates of heavy floods (magnitude classes 2–3) in central Europe. a, b, Elbe, winter; c, d, Elbe, summer; e, f, Oder, winter; g, h, Oder, summer. Flood data from Weikinn’s (1958–2002) documentary sources (b, d, f, h), covering the interval up to 1850, were augmented with measured records. The analysis tool employed a nonstationary, nonparametric risk estimation technique with a Gaussian kernel, a bandwidth of 35 years and 2000 bootstrap simulations. This yielded (a, c, e, g) occurrence rates (solid lines) and 90% confidence bands (grey); occurrence rates using data from CLIMDAT for 1500–1799 are shown as dashed lines. Records before 1500 are likely not homogenous (no confidence bands drawn). Arrows indicate the results (downward/no trend) from the statistical test (90% level) for trend in the flood occurrence rate (Elbe, 1852–2002; Oder, 1850–1920 and 1920–2002); results for uncorrected and reservoir-size corrected data are identical.
Source: Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166. External link to paper >>
Software: Caliza™. Climate risk analysis software >>
Occurrence rates of heavy floods (magnitude classes 2–3) in central Europe. a, b, Elbe, winter; c, d, Elbe, summer; e, f, Oder, winter; g, h, Oder, summer. Flood data from Weikinn’s (1958–2002) documentary sources (b, d, f, h), covering the interval up to 1850, were augmented with measured records. The analysis tool employed a nonstationary, nonparametric risk estimation technique with a Gaussian kernel, a bandwidth of 35 years and 2000 bootstrap simulations. This yielded (a, c, e, g) occurrence rates (solid lines) and 90% confidence bands (grey); occurrence rates using data from CLIMDAT for 1500–1799 are shown as dashed lines. Records before 1500 are likely not homogenous (no confidence bands drawn). Arrows indicate the results (downward/no trend) from the statistical test (90% level) for trend in the flood occurrence rate (Elbe, 1852–2002; Oder, 1850–1920 and 1920–2002); results for uncorrected and reservoir-size corrected data are identical.
Source: Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166. External link to paper >>
Software: Caliza™. Climate risk analysis software >>